W e know the problem in principle already by Marx: One tends to fictions, models hold for real. Except they're not. But they have real influence on the course of events. So just seem to be the simplest fictions have the greatest impact on the real world have to walk so the world in their image.
Baudrillard explained this phenomenon with the disappearance of the real and the absolute supremacy of the imagination (the image of wins in the post-modern society, the domination and pushes out the real. The picture finally refers only to itself). For Baudrillard, the cumulative eventually perhaps his most famous statement, the Gulf War did not take place. Amazingly, it took this little challenge a lot of scathing criticism and media attention because of the Gulf War, the critics would have been very good and everything else would be of course a mockery to the victims and ... But let's leave that and go back, we the starting point: the connection between the real and fiction.
The sociologist Elena Esposito, who had the good fortune to study, both in Umberto Eco as well as Niklas Luhmann to be able to find some promising and more sophisticated approaches. It links this in her book "The fiction of the likely reality " with the probability. And meets with the 2007 book published in time for the emergence of the crisis the test of time. It's all about models and risk assessment.
A model of something is fictional in the first place. And yet reflected in him the desire to double the reality. Most of this request is accompanied with the aim of it favorable for action for the real world to derive a model is by no means a lie: it is fiction, but it should make it possible to better reflect the reality. This gives each model a direct impact on reality. If only because any model, any fiction so well by itself is already a part of reality.
But it is always about simplification. In the case of probability theory, the simplification is already included in the concept itself:
Esposito therefore shows how the use refers to the apparent coincidence of fiction beginning in probability Esposito is coming in terms of Popper on the slogan that the truth is just not likely, but informative Here we have the next problem:... namely that the lack of information, the information back would not play a role, there would be no subjects to try to get information to share so that their future action better. But there are no subjects in probability theory: because of the static. But observing the information of the other subjects an opaque, complex brings chaos into the system: For each individual subject tried his decisions based on the information he has regarding the decisions and information from other subjects to interpret new.
There is also the problem of the temporal dimension: The individual subjects can not know how certain information will be evaluated in the future. The constant change and innovation in a social system could always bring other evaluation parameters. The theory of probability can only be created by today's standards assessment: The basis is her world as it really in this or that moment is not the living subjects.
These effects cause but also that the forecast itself is risky. What it was necessary to do well, that would, according to Esposito, but not the discrediting of such forecasts, to consider much more than that it is they constitute fictions. Elena Esposito is thus also fixed some surprise that we learn our children while Don Quixote assigned to the world of fiction (even if we can learn from literature for the real life), but have no objections if someone claims that something " objectively probable. " (although this is also is a fiction, on the basis of one for the reality could learn something)
Esposito is one of the main problems for the economy that economists too often are completely incapable of recognizing their own fictions as such (it is, how to read here can, in my eyes and one if not the main achievement of Marx's critique).
The uncertainty is certainly not with models set aside entirely. As Esposito points out that it too should it not be: for without risk there would be on the financial markets not only the opportunity to profit. The risk itself is a resource. The attempt to avoid it would be hopeless to eliminate it, would the abolition of the financial markets equivalent: But is it so Esposito, to interpret the risk and use strategically.
Baudrillard explained this phenomenon with the disappearance of the real and the absolute supremacy of the imagination (the image of wins in the post-modern society, the domination and pushes out the real. The picture finally refers only to itself). For Baudrillard, the cumulative eventually perhaps his most famous statement, the Gulf War did not take place. Amazingly, it took this little challenge a lot of scathing criticism and media attention because of the Gulf War, the critics would have been very good and everything else would be of course a mockery to the victims and ... But let's leave that and go back, we the starting point: the connection between the real and fiction.
The sociologist Elena Esposito, who had the good fortune to study, both in Umberto Eco as well as Niklas Luhmann to be able to find some promising and more sophisticated approaches. It links this in her book "The fiction of the likely reality " with the probability. And meets with the 2007 book published in time for the emergence of the crisis the test of time. It's all about models and risk assessment.
A model of something is fictional in the first place. And yet reflected in him the desire to double the reality. Most of this request is accompanied with the aim of it favorable for action for the real world to derive a model is by no means a lie: it is fiction, but it should make it possible to better reflect the reality. This gives each model a direct impact on reality. If only because any model, any fiction so well by itself is already a part of reality.
But it is always about simplification. In the case of probability theory, the simplification is already included in the concept itself:
"The construction of probability based on chance, which used as a kind of residual category will admit when it is time that one of the world does not know: In the "real" reality there is of no coincidence "
Esposito therefore shows how the use refers to the apparent coincidence of fiction beginning in probability Esposito is coming in terms of Popper on the slogan that the truth is just not likely, but informative Here we have the next problem:... namely that the lack of information, the information back would not play a role, there would be no subjects to try to get information to share so that their future action better. But there are no subjects in probability theory: because of the static. But observing the information of the other subjects an opaque, complex brings chaos into the system: For each individual subject tried his decisions based on the information he has regarding the decisions and information from other subjects to interpret new.
There is also the problem of the temporal dimension: The individual subjects can not know how certain information will be evaluated in the future. The constant change and innovation in a social system could always bring other evaluation parameters. The theory of probability can only be created by today's standards assessment: The basis is her world as it really in this or that moment is not the living subjects.
These effects cause but also that the forecast itself is risky. What it was necessary to do well, that would, according to Esposito, but not the discrediting of such forecasts, to consider much more than that it is they constitute fictions. Elena Esposito is thus also fixed some surprise that we learn our children while Don Quixote assigned to the world of fiction (even if we can learn from literature for the real life), but have no objections if someone claims that something " objectively probable. " (although this is also is a fiction, on the basis of one for the reality could learn something)
Esposito is one of the main problems for the economy that economists too often are completely incapable of recognizing their own fictions as such (it is, how to read here can, in my eyes and one if not the main achievement of Marx's critique).
The uncertainty is certainly not with models set aside entirely. As Esposito points out that it too should it not be: for without risk there would be on the financial markets not only the opportunity to profit. The risk itself is a resource. The attempt to avoid it would be hopeless to eliminate it, would the abolition of the financial markets equivalent: But is it so Esposito, to interpret the risk and use strategically.
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